NOT A MIRACLE AFTER ALL… CÔTE D'IVOIRE'S DOWNFALL: FLAWED CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS AND MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

Abstract

Long touted as an island of political stability and (relative) economic prosperity in West Africa, since December 24, 1999, Côte d’Ivoire* has joined the more common category in the sub-region: praetorian states mired in political uncertainty and unending turbulence. Indeed, on September 19, 2002, it came very close to collapsing altogether, a fate very few would dare to predict only a few weeks earlier. This stunning evolution started with the military regime of General Robert Guei, which lasted less than ten months. Eric Nordlinger’s definition of praetorianism as “a situation in which military officers [in the case of Africa non-commissioned officers as well] are major or predominant political actors by virtue of their actual or threatened use of force” fits Ivory Coast perfectly today. Political violence has already claimed thousands of victims. As witnessed in the recent resumption of fighting and bloody upheaval, the threat to the country and the entire sub-region has by no means disappeared - despite the Marcoussis and Accra agreements and continued efforts to end the crisis.