ON THE USE OF THE SHAPLEY VALUE IN POLITICAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION

Abstract

This article delineates generic causes to internal conflict and proposes a
coalition-forming methodology to allow for power sharing as one avenue of conflict
resolution. A suitable framework to study causes to internal conflict should, at least,
provide for big bad men versus people under pressure, recent versus historic events
and an internal versus an external emphasis that may be employed to understand the
rationale for internal conflict. As long as aggrieved parties are not allowed to
address their grievances adequately, political conflict will emerge and, if not
addressed timely, such conflict may lead to civil war. A conflict resolution
mechanism based on the Shapley value is proposed to deal with internal conflict.
The allocation of delegates, derived so that all parties have a say commensurate with
their support bases, should allow for formal consensus to take place more readily
than in cases where a particular party’s representation in such a forum dominates the
representation of the other parties. An algorithm to determine the number of votes or
seats allocated to each of the parties to ensure equitable power sharing is also given.
The causal reasons for internal conflict and the proposed methodology to deal
with such conflict was presented to prominent South African politicians and political
scientists for comment. A favourable response regarding their acceptance of the
methodology was elucidated.